2006 House · NY-29
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,004 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 42%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.64% · Republican 42.16%
D+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 43.643 − 42.155 = 1.488
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (1.488) = 9.512
- Absolute miss = |9.512| = 9.512
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64241, race ID 3878 (538 database).