2006 House · NC-8
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 999 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 44%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.87% · Republican 50.13%
R+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.865 − 50.135 = -0.270
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.270) = 4.271
- Absolute miss = |4.271| = 4.271
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64242, race ID 3886 (538 database).