2006 House · NC-11
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 44%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.79% · Republican 46.21%
D+7.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 53.794 − 46.206 = 7.588
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (7.588) = 1.411
- Absolute miss = |1.411| = 1.411
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64242, race ID 3889 (538 database).