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2006 House · OH-2

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 972 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 50.45%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.393 − 50.450 = -1.057
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.057) = -3.943
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.943| = 3.943

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64243, race ID 3894 (538 database).