2006 House · PA-6
RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 1,006 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.34% · Republican 50.66%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 49.340 − 50.660 = -1.320
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.320) = 6.320
- Absolute miss = |6.320| = 6.320
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64244, race ID 3926 (538 database).