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2006 House · PA-8

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 994 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.30% · Republican 49.69%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.299 − 49.692 = 0.607
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.607) = 2.392
  4. Absolute miss = |2.392| = 2.392

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64244, race ID 3928 (538 database).