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2006 House · WA-5

RT Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 991 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.60% · Republican 56.40%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.605 − 56.395 = -12.790
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-12.790) = 7.790
  4. Absolute miss = |7.790| = 7.790

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64246, race ID 4009 (538 database).