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2000 President · MI

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.134) = -2.134
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.134| = 2.134

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6425, race ID 828 (538 database).