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2011 House · NY-9

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2011-09-07 (6 days before the election) · 886 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 50%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 45.67%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.924 − 45.666 = -1.742
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.742) = -4.258
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.258| = 4.258

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64255, race ID 1790 (538 database).