2000 President · PA
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%
D+4.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.170) = 0.830
- Absolute miss = |0.830| = 0.830
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6426, race ID 844 (538 database).