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1998 House · PA-10

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.40% · Republican 48.70%

R+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.401 − 48.698 = -0.297
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.297) = 1.298
  4. Absolute miss = |1.298| = 1.298

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64263, race ID 2185 (538 database).