2000 House · FL-15
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 56%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.24% · Republican 58.84%
R+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 39.243 − 58.839 = -19.596
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-19.596) = 3.596
- Absolute miss = |3.596| = 3.596
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64265, race ID 2379 (538 database).