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2000 House · OH-12

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 56%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.83% · Republican 52.87%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 56 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.826 − 52.866 = -9.040
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-9.040) = -5.960
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.960| = 5.960

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64266, race ID 2592 (538 database).