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2000 House · PA-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.99% · Republican 59.01%

R+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.991 − 59.009 = -18.018
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-18.018) = 11.019
  4. Absolute miss = |11.019| = 11.019

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64268, race ID 2614 (538 database).