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2000 House · KY-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 37%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.26% · Republican 43.52%

D+10.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.264 − 43.517 = 10.747
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (10.747) = 12.253
  4. Absolute miss = |12.253| = 12.253

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64269, race ID 2445 (538 database).