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2000 House · NV-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.68% · Republican 44.18%

D+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.680 − 44.180 = 7.500
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.500) = 0.500
  4. Absolute miss = |0.500| = 0.500

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64270, race ID 2517 (538 database).