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2000 House · FL-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 55%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 50.79%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 55 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.188 − 50.793 = -1.605
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-1.605) = -10.395
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.395| = 10.395

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64274, race ID 2372 (538 database).