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2000 House · TX-25

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 39%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.11% · Republican 38.53%

D+21.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 39 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.113 − 38.528 = 21.585
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (21.585) = -1.585
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.585| = 1.585

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64275, race ID 2674 (538 database).