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2002 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 707 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 53%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.39% · Republican 51.61%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 53 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.389 − 51.611 = -3.222
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-3.222) = -4.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.777| = 4.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64276, race ID 2884 (538 database).