2002 House · KS-4
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 518 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 51%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.00% · Republican 60.58%
R+23.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 37.000 − 60.583 = -23.583
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-23.583) = 14.583
- Absolute miss = |14.583| = 14.583
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64277, race ID 2881 (538 database).