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2002 House · OK-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 494 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 72% · Republican 25%

D+47.0

The certified result

Democrat 74.12% · Republican 25.88%

D+48.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 72 − 25 = 47.00
  2. Actual margin = 74.122 − 25.878 = 48.244
  3. Signed miss = 47.00 − (48.244) = -1.244
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.244| = 1.244

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64278, race ID 3039 (538 database).