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2004 House · KS-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 661 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 61%

R+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.07% · Republican 66.11%

R+35.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 61 = -30.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.074 − 66.110 = -35.036
  3. Signed miss = -30.00 − (-35.036) = 5.035
  4. Absolute miss = |5.035| = 5.035

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64287, race ID 3317 (538 database).