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2004 House · CO-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 630 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.55% · Republican 46.56%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.552 − 46.559 = 3.993
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (3.993) = -0.993
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.993| = 0.993

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64290, race ID 3228 (538 database).