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2004 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 638 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 58%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.80% · Republican 60.26%

R+22.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 58 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.799 − 60.257 = -22.458
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-22.458) = 1.458
  4. Absolute miss = |1.458| = 1.458

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64292, race ID 3320 (538 database).