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2004 House · OK-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 656 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 59%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.54% · Republican 60.19%

R+22.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 59 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.542 − 60.188 = -22.646
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-22.646) = -3.354
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.354| = 3.354

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64293, race ID 3475 (538 database).