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2000 President · OR

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 45%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 46.52%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 46.519 = 0.441
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.441) = -4.441
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.441| = 4.441

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6430, race ID 843 (538 database).