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2006 House · IN-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 519 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 45.49%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.013 − 45.492 = 4.521
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.521) = -0.521
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.521| = 0.521

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64301, race ID 3745 (538 database).