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2006 House · WA-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 524 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 33%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 64.16% · Republican 35.84%

D+28.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 33 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 64.162 − 35.838 = 28.324
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (28.324) = 0.677
  4. Absolute miss = |0.677| = 0.677

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64304, race ID 4006 (538 database).