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2006 House · NY-26

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 411 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.02% · Republican 42.04%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.017 − 42.041 = -4.024
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-4.024) = -0.976
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.976| = 0.976

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64305, race ID 3875 (538 database).