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2006 House · WA-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 498 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.54% · Republican 51.46%

R+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.540 − 51.460 = -2.920
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-2.920) = -3.080
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.080| = 3.080

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64307, race ID 4012 (538 database).