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2006 House · CO-7

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 589 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 38%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.93% · Republican 42.06%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 38 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.933 − 42.063 = 12.870
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (12.870) = 3.130
  4. Absolute miss = |3.130| = 3.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64309, race ID 3669 (538 database).