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2006 House · OH-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 618 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 50.45%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.393 − 50.450 = -1.057
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.057) = 4.057
  4. Absolute miss = |4.057| = 4.057

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64310, race ID 3894 (538 database).