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2006 House · OK-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 430 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 59%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.30% · Republican 60.38%

R+23.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 59 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.297 − 60.377 = -23.080
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-23.080) = 1.081
  4. Absolute miss = |1.081| = 1.081

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64311, race ID 3915 (538 database).