2006 House · SC-5
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 530 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 39%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.90% · Republican 43.06%
D+13.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 39 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 56.904 − 43.060 = 13.844
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (13.844) = 5.157
- Absolute miss = |5.157| = 5.157
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64312, race ID 3946 (538 database).