2006 House · KY-3
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 610 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 44%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 48.18%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 50.623 − 48.176 = 2.447
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.447) = 5.553
- Absolute miss = |5.553| = 5.553
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64313, race ID 3757 (538 database).