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2006 House · CO-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 571 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.12% · Republican 45.60%

R+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.118 − 45.605 = -2.487
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.487) = 1.487
  4. Absolute miss = |1.487| = 1.487

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64316, race ID 3666 (538 database).