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2006 House · IN-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 538 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 45.49%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.013 − 45.492 = 4.521
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (4.521) = -6.521
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.521| = 6.521

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64317, race ID 3745 (538 database).