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2006 House · OH-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 541 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 39%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.08% · Republican 37.92%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 39 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.079 − 37.921 = 24.158
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (24.158) = -5.158
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.158| = 5.158

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64318, race ID 3898 (538 database).