Skip to content

2006 House · NY-26

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 470 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.02% · Republican 42.04%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.017 − 42.041 = -4.024
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-4.024) = 0.024
  4. Absolute miss = |0.024| = 0.024

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64323, race ID 3875 (538 database).