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2006 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 485 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 48.18%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.623 − 48.176 = 2.447
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.447) = 2.553
  4. Absolute miss = |2.553| = 2.553

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64324, race ID 3757 (538 database).