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2006 House · WA-8

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 685 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.54% · Republican 51.46%

R+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.540 − 51.460 = -2.920
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.920) = 2.920
  4. Absolute miss = |2.920| = 2.920

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64326, race ID 4012 (538 database).