Skip to content

2008 House · KY-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 613 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 41%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.37% · Republican 40.63%

D+18.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 41 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.365 − 40.635 = 18.730
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (18.730) = -2.731
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.731| = 2.731

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64331, race ID 4193 (538 database).