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2008 House · KS-4

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 597 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 62%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.38% · Republican 63.41%

R+31.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 62 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.382 − 63.410 = -31.028
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-31.028) = -1.972
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.972| = 1.972

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64335, race ID 4190 (538 database).