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2008 House · IN-9

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 599 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.77% · Republican 38.41%

D+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.769 − 38.409 = 19.360
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (19.360) = -4.360
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.360| = 4.360

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64339, race ID 4181 (538 database).