Skip to content

2008 House · OR-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 668 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 31%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.26% · Republican 38.34%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 31 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.255 − 38.335 = 15.920
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (15.920) = 8.080
  4. Absolute miss = |8.080| = 8.080

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64361, race ID 4355 (538 database).