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2008 House · NY-26

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 587 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 48%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.91% · Republican 38.62%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 48 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.910 − 38.622 = -4.712
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-4.712) = -9.288
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.288| = 9.288

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64362, race ID 4310 (538 database).