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2008 House · MN-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 46.41%

R+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.433 − 46.406 = -2.973
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.973) = 1.973
  4. Absolute miss = |1.973| = 1.973

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64363, race ID 4244 (538 database).