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2010 House · PA-12

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-05-10 (8 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 38%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 44.99%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 38 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.641 − 44.990 = 7.651
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (7.651) = -1.651
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.651| = 1.651

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64369, race ID 1798 (538 database).