Skip to content

2012 House · FL-22

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 54.63% · Republican 45.37%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.627 − 45.373 = 9.254
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (9.254) = -9.254
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.254| = 9.254

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64370, race ID 5004 (538 database).