2002 House · NH-2
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 52%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.86% · Republican 56.81%
R+16.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 40.856 − 56.808 = -15.952
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-15.952) = 0.951
- Absolute miss = |0.951| = 0.951
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64372, race ID 2960 (538 database).